-weighted dollar and real bilateral rates against the dollar. However, taking these additional factors into account reduces the … estimated effects of interest rates on the dollar. An error-correction model that includes these factors explains about half of … the in-sample variation of changes in the real trade-weighted dollar and has out-of-sample prediction errors that are 60 …

Since the fiscal expansion and real appreciation of the dollar in the early 1980s, widespread attention has focused on … the economy. In this paper we take a critical look at this view. ; We argue that the association of a dollar appreciation … analyzing the empirical support for the "two-tiered" hypothesis, we show that the negative association between dollar …