We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States … including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This …. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice …

longer-run inflation developments in the euro area. Employing an eclectic approach we consider various relevant theories …-frequency variations of inflation. Money growth is found to be causal for inflation only if other variables are omitted, which we therefore … führt auf die Arbeitslosenrate und die langfristigen Zinsen als kausal für die niederfrequenten Variationen der Inflation …