This paper evaluates a number of non-structural measures of the business cycle. It adopts a structural definition of the cycle, interprets non-structural measures as noisy approximations, and seeks a proxy that is reliable across a variety of plausible trend-cycle structures. The results favor a...

Conventional money demand models appear to be unstable, and this complicates the problem of conducting monetary policy. One way to deal with parameter instability is to learn how to adapt quickly when parameters shift. This paper applies a time-varying-parameter estimator to conventional money...