In this short paper we outline the Newton-Raphson methods used for solving and minimizing complex equations that often have no analytical solution. We outline the formulae, their origins and give a simple example of their application

This paper documents a positive cross-sectional relation between returns and lagged idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) in the corporate bond market. The relation is stronger following periods of low funding liquidity due to a funding liquidity driven decrease in returns and its subsequent reversal....

We show that financial innovations that change the collateral capacity of assets in the economy can affect investment even in the absence of any shift in utilities, productivity, or asset payoffs. First we show that the ability to leverage an asset by selling non-contingent promises can generate...

We find that between 20 and 25 percent of the negative covariance between excess returns and inflation is explained by shocks to monetary policy variables. The finding is robust to changes in the monetary policy rule that have occurred during the 1966-2000 period. The result contradicts the...

In order to connect the stock market valuation level to medium-term cash-flow fundamentals, I develop a dynamic model that links the book-to-market ratio to subsequent profitability, interest rates, and excess stock returns. My approach avoids modeling the potentially unstable dividend process....

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. Empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by...

Why is an inverted yield-curve slope such a powerful predictor of future recessions? We show that a decomposition of the yield curve slope into its expectations and risk premia components helps disentangle the channels that connect fluctuations in Treasury rates and the future state of the...

This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century. What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the...

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the macroeconomic implications of financial imperfections. It focuses on two major channels through which financial imperfections can affect macroeconomic outcomes. The first channel, which operates through the demand side of finance...

This paper surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It focuses on three major questions. First, what are the basic theoretical linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes? Second, what is the empirical evidence supporting these...