We propose a new framework for monetary policy analysis to study monetary policy normalization when exiting a liquidity trap. The optimal combination of reserves and interest rate policy requires an increase in liquidity (reserves) a few quarters after the policy rate is set at the effective...

Does the federal funds rate respond to shocks when aggregate reserves are in the trillions of dollars? Has banks' demand for reserves moved over time? We provide a structural time-varying estimate of the slope of the reserve demand curve over 2010-21. We estimate a time-varying vector...

We have documented a regime change in the U.S. Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We first derived bounds on Treasury yields that account for dealer balance sheet costs, which we call the net short and net long curves. We show that actual Treasury yields moved from the net short...

We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about...

This paper uses cross-country firm-level data to explore the impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on firms' sales, investment, and employment. We estimate a sizeable impact of U.S. monetary policy on the average foreign firm, while controlling for other macroeconomic and financial variables...

We develop a two-sector New Keynesian model to analyze the inflationary effects of climate policies. Climate policies do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation, but may generate a tradeoff between the central bank's objectives for inflation and real activity. The presence and size...

This paper seeks to estimate the extent to which market-implied policy expectations could be improved with further information disclosure from the FOMC. Using text analysis methods based on large language models, we show that if FOMC meeting materials with five-year lagged release dates-like...

We provide a toolkit for efficient online estimation of heterogeneous agent (HA) New Keynesian (NK) models based on Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We use this toolkit to compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of a prominent HANK model, Bayer et al. (2022), to that of the representative...

We modify the Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models of the natural rate of interest to account for time-varying volatility and a persistent COVID supply shock during the pandemic. Resulting estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area...

This paper studies how quantitative easing (QE) affects household welfare across the wealth distribution. I build a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with household portfolio choice, wage and price rigidities, endogenous unemployment, frictional financial intermediation, an...