We analyze the determinants of IMF lending since the early nineties, a period during which the roles of financial cycles and interconnectedness as amplifiers and transmitters of economic crises have gained prominence. First, we show that the global financial cycle is an important driver of IMF...

We investigate whether the fact that most countries cannot borrow internationally in their own currencies, referred to as “original sin” by Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999), may remain as a “mystery” when an alternative variable set and estimation procedure are taken into account. Our...

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We find that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5–2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to...

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We nd that IMF programs signifcantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to...

Das Papier diskutiert die relative Aufgabenteilung von privaten und öffentlichen Institutionen bei der Vermeidung und Bewältigung von Verschuldungskrisen souveräner Staaten. Anders als häufig in der Debatte dargestellt, sind Änderungen sowohl auf Seiten der Anleger gefragt wie auch...

Frequently, parties make sequential decisions regarding investments for which the probability of success or failure is dependent upon the amount of total investment. This paper reports a series of experiments involving a costly investment game which is derived from the catalytic finance model of...

In response to debt crises, policy makers often feature Collective Action Clauses (CACs) in sovereign bonds among the pillars of international financial architecture. However, the content of official pronouncements about CACs suggests that CACs are more like doorknobs: a process tool with...

This paper empirically investigates the extent of investor moral hazard associated with IMF bailouts by analyzing the responses of sovereign bond spreads to the changes in the perceived probability of IMF bailouts of countries undergoing financial crisis. We do not find strong evidence that the...

Previous tests of creditor moral hazard cannot distinguish between two types of investor behavior: expectations of implicit guarantees or better future economic fundamentals due to a prospective IMF program. The novelty of our approach lies in the inclusion of the forward foreign exchange rate...

The paper provides a critical review of empirical studies on IMF induced moral hazard. Taken together, there is considerable evidence that the insurance provided by the Fund leads to moral hazard with investors in bond markets, while moral hazard in equity markets has so far not been...