This paper examines the dynamics of various measures of national, regional, and global inflation. The paper calculates the first two common factors for four measures of industrial country inflation rates: total CPI, core CPI, cyclical total CPI, and cyclical core CPI. The paper then demonstrates...

Exchange rates of currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS are characterized by long periods of stability interrupted by periods of extreme volatility. The periods of volatility appear at times of realignments of the central parities and at times when the exchange rate is within the...

This paper examines the conventional monetary equation of exchange rate determination. Under certain exogeneity conditions, one can write the price level, at home and abroad, as the ratio of the nominal money supply to the demand for real money balances. Then, since the exchange rate is the...

This paper provides an empirical examination of the hypothesis that the forward exchange rate provides an quot;optimalquot; forecast of the future spot ex-change rate, for five currencies relative to the dollar. This hypothesis provides a convenient norm for examining the erratic behavior of...

Most studies of the efficiency of the foreign exchange market focus on a single maturity -- usually a one month exchange rate. However, one observes that forward contracts of many maturities are simultaneously traded in the foreign exchange market. The hypothesis that the foreign. exchange...

Exchange rates of currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS are characterized by long periods of stability interrupted by periods of extreme volatility. The periods of volatility appear at times of realignments of the central parities and at times when the exchange rate is within the...