Incorporating survey forecasts to a forecast-augmented Hodrick-Prescott filter, we evidence a considerable improvement to the reliability of US output-gap estimation in realtime. Odds of extracting wrong signals of output-gap estimates are found to reduce by almost a half, and the magnitude of...

A dynamic stochastic model of a small open economy with a two-level banking intermediation structure, a risk-sensitive regulatory capital regime, and imperfect capital mobility is developed. Firms borrow from a domestic bank and the bank borrows on world capital markets, in both cases subject to...

We are grateful to Denise Osborn and Eric Renault for valuable comments and to Nikolaos Sakkas for assistance with the computations. The paper has also benefited from the comments of a co-editor and three anonymous referees. An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title...

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of legal institutions on entrepreneurial firm dynamics. Owners choose firm size, financial structure and default to manage risk. We find: (i) Less risk averse entrepreneurs run bigger firms and it is optimal for them to incorporate, while more risk...

In this paper, we present a limiting distribution theory for the break point estimator in a linear regression model with multiple structural breaks obtained by minimizing a Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) objective function. Our analysis covers both the case in which the reduced form for the...

This paper studies interactions between innovation, public capital, and human capital in an OLG model of endogenous growth. Public capital affects growth through productivity, the diffusion rate of new technologies, innovation capacity, and human capital accumulation. Panel data regressions show...