This paper assesses the possible contemporaneous relationship between stock index prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries and over a time period that spans several decades. In a cointegration framework, our analysis looks at three hypotheses. First,...

In this paper, we analyze wether the sensitivity of credit spread changes to financial and macroeconomic variables depends on bond characteristics such as rating and maturity. First, we estimate the term structure of credit spreads for different rating categories by applying an extension of the...

The use of GARCH models with stable Paretian innovations in financial modeling has been recently suggested in the literature. This class of processes is attractive because it allows for conditional skewness and leptokurtosis of financial returns without ruling out normality. This contribution...

We show that small trends do not influence log-periodogram based estimators for the memory parameter in a stationary invertible long-memory process. In the case of slowly decaying trends which are easily confused with long-range dependence we show by Monte Carlo methods that the tapered...

In this paper I discuss the estimation of the process governing the structural shocks (or wedges) to a DSGE model, arguing that a well-specified model would satisfy certain sets of moment conditions. Based on tests for overidentifying restrictions, I compare three specifications of the Taylor...

The slow recovery following the 2008/2009 recession has led to renewed interest in the question whether deep recessions lower real GDP permanently or whether we can expect a rebound to earlier trend levels. Using a recent quantile autoregression unit root test we check whether shocks to real GDP...

We combine an estimated monetary policy rule featuring time-varying trend inflation and stochastic coefficients with a medium scale New Keynesian framework calibrated on the U.S. economy. We find the impact of variations in trend inflation on the likelihood of equilibrium determinacy to be both...

Time series evidence on exchange rates has been unable to reject the random walk hypothesis. A simple structural model that accounts for target zone nonlinearities provides conclusive evidence of mean reversion in EMS exchange rates.

We compare small-sample properties of Bayes estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of ARMA-GARCH models. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that in small sample, the Bayes estimator beats the MLE. We also develop a Bayes method of testing strict stationarity and ergodicity of the...

In this paper we assess the impact of external economic liberalization in India on the transmission of aggregate shocks. We examine the relative importance of domestic and external shocks and capture their feedback effects by estimating an eight variable vector autoregression (VAR) model. We...