Greater intervention by the public sector is often proposed as a solution to the increased speculation and excessive price volatility through to characterize today's competitive world financial system. However, before any ambitious policy responses can be contemplated, the question whether asset...

In this paper, we discuss some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Cnadian data are presented.

This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability to two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes.

This paper is a user' guide to a set of Guss procedures developed at the Bank of Canada for estimating regime-switching models. The procedure can estimate relatively quickly a wide variety of switching models and so should prove useful to the applied researchers. Sample program listings are...

Our paper reports on Monte Carlo experiments using Evans's data-generating process to gauge the performance of these two kinds of regime-switching tests.