menu costs and uncertainty about productivity. Uncertainty arises from firms' inability to distinguish between permanent … and transitory changes in their idiosyncratic productivity. Upon the arrival of a productivity shock, a firm's uncertainty … spikes up and then fades with learning until the arrival of the next shock. These uncertainty cycles, when paired with menu …

We investigate the possible asymmetric response of inflation expectations to oil price and policy uncertainty shocks …. Unlike other studies that assume symmetric effects, our study finds asymmetric effects of oil price and policy uncertainty on …

Austrian Ultimatum, which in retrospect insured the imminent start of a protracted, pan-European war. Signs of uncertainty … disasters and related uncertainty shocks. The analysis demonstrates that, following a four-and-a-half-month closure, the NYSE …

producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty present in forecasts from multivariate time series models. Second …

Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived … macroeconomic uncertainty of some households. The effects on their spending decisions relative to an untreated control group are … measured in follow-up surveys. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty induces households to reduce their spending on non …