This research uses Simple Moving Averages and four other well-known indicators to investigate the usefulness of the Technical Analysis approach to the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) in South Africa. Technical indicators are applied to two JSE indexes representing large cap and small cap...

This research uses Simple Moving Averages and four other well-known indicators to investigate the usefulness of the Technical Analysis approach to the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) in South Africa. Technical indicators are applied to two JSE indexes representing large cap and small cap...

Numerous studies have examined trading strategies that seek to exploit price reversal behaviors in the U.S. stock market. The evidence to date suggests that taking a long position in U.S. stocks with negative returns (losers) and a short position in stocks that have positive returns (winners)...

The quality of an exchange rate forecasting model has typically been judged relative to a random-walk in terms of out-of-sample forecast errors. The difficulty of outperforming this benchmark is well documented, although Clarida and Taylor have demonstrated how the random walk can be beaten in...

In this paper we investigate the claim that hedge funds offer investors a superior risk-return trade-off. We do so using a continuous time version of Dybvig’s (1988a, 1988b) payoff distribution pricing model. The evaluation model, which does not require any assumptions with regard to the...

While considerable evidence has been produced concerning the efficacy of trading rules in futures markets, the results have generally not allowed for the reinvestment of profits as might be observed for real traders. Similarly, the determination of the appropriate capital allocation required per...

We carry out a large-scale investigation of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market, using daily data over a maximum of forty years for thirty developed and emerging market currencies. Employing a stepwise test to safeguard against data-snooping bias and examining over 21,000...

We argue that the use of publicly available and easily accessible information on economic and financial crises to detect structural breaks in the link between stock returns and macroeconomic predictor variables improves the performance of simple trading rules in real time. In particular, our...

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning...

This study reconsiders the role of jumps for volatility forecasting by showing that jumps have a positive and mostly significant impact on future volatility. This result becomes apparent once volatility is separated into its continuous and discontinuous component using estimators which are not...