his paper examines whether the CPI and real GDP for the U.S. exhibit nonlinear reversion to trend as recently concluded by Beechey and Österholm [Beechey, M. and Österholm, P., 2008. Revisiting the uncertain unit root in GDP and CPI: testing for non-linear trend reversion. Economics Letters...

The autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estimation procedure provides a specification of the error terms as well as estimates of the coefficients. A simple interest rate equation is estimated using least squares and also using ARCH. Then the stochastic simulation methodology is...

This paper uses asymmetric heteroskedastic normal mixture models to fit return data and to price options. The models can be estimated straightforwardly by maximum likelihood, have high statistical fit when used on S&P 500 index return data, and allow for substantial negative skewness and time...

Cointegration analysis tests for the existence of a significant long-run equilibrium among some economic variables. Standard econometric procedures to test for cointegration have proven unreliable when the long-run relation among the variables is characterized by non-linearities and persistent...

Quantitative information on the current state of the economy is crucial to economic policy-making, but the quarterly national accounts data for GDP in the euro area are released with a significant delay. This paper presents alternative models for the real-time forecasting of euro area GDP and...

The paper finds evidence of non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro-area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is first estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are...

The aim of the present work is to obtain short-term predictions of the monthly volume of the industrial production of the euro area. Preliminary information on the behaviour of this variable is needed, since the index is released with a lag of about two months. A model based on the US industrial...

In this article, we analyse how much of the reduction in emerging markets spreads can be ascribed to specific factors - linked to the improvement in the 'fundamentals' of a given country - rather than to common factors - linked to global liquidity conditions and agents� degree of risk...

This paper uses Garch models to estimate the objective and risk-neutral density functions of financial asset prices and, by comparing their shapes, recover detailed information on economic agents' attitudes toward risk. It differs from recent papers investigating analogous issues because it uses...