The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models, including GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR models, are used to...

In this paper, we develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) which is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model, which measures...

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics. Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal....

This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two...

The paper involves the analysis of the seeds of the recent debt crisis that occurred in the Eurozone area. For the analysis we use the model of Fleming and Stein (2004). This model has two risk drivers arising from uncertainties in the return on capital and the effective rate of return on net...

This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies as applied to a set of daily arithmetically compounded returns on a set of ten market indices representing the major European markets for a nine year period from the beginning of 2005 to the...

In this paper we use a long memory framework to examine the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis using both monthly and quarterly data for a panel of 47 countries over a fifty year period (1957 to 2009). The analysis focusses on the long memory parameter d that allows us to...

The three most popular univariate conditional volatility models are the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model of Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), the GJR (or threshold GARCH) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992), and the exponential GARCH (or...

This paper features an analysis of volatility spillover effects from Australia's major trading partners, namely, China, Japan, Korea and the United States, for a period running from 12th September 2002 to 9th September 2012. This captures the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). These...

We present four methods of assessing the diversification potential within a stock market, two of these are based on principal component analysis. They were applied to the Australian stock exchange for the years 2000 to 2014 and all show a consistent picture. The potential for diversification...