In a highly interlinked global economy a key question for policy makers is how foreign shocks and policies transmit to the domestic economy. We develop a semi-structural multi-country model with rich real and financial channels of international shock propagation for the euro area, the US, Japan,...

Existing stress tests do not capture feedback loops between individual institutions and the financial system. To identify feedback loops, the European Systemic Risk Board has developed macroprudential surveys that ask banks and insurers how they would behave in a macroeconomic stress scenario....

We analyze the effects of macroeconomic fluctuations, as well as episodes of financial instability and inflation, on inequality indicators in Chile for the period 1960-2014. The relationship between episodes of crisis and fluctuations on levels of inequality are estimated from an event study,...

In the aftermath of the European sovereign debt crisis (2009-2014), the management of expectations has risen in importance. However, policy responses have emphasized the management of fiscal spending without examining the impact changes in the business confidence have on the economy. This paper...

This paper aims to achieve two objectives. First, we demonstrate that with respect to business cycle frequency (Burns and Mitchell, 1946), there was a general decrease in the association between macroeconomic variables (MV) and housing market variables (HMV) following the global financial crisis...

Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply...

Das einst krisengeplagte deutsche Bauhauptgewerbe boomt. Dies wird auch beim Blick auf die im Rahmen des viel beachteten ifo Geschäftsklimas erhobenen Indikatoren deutlich. Insbesondere der Indikator zur aktuellen Geschäftslage im Bauhauptgewerbe eilt von Rekord zu Rekord. Der derzeitige...

Nach den aktuellen Analysen der Experten aus den 19 Mitgliedsländern des EUROCONSTRUCT-Netzwerks sind die Bauleistungen im vergangenen Jahr im Gesamtgebiet abermals kräftig gestiegen. Allerdings fiel das Wachstum mit knapp 3% deutlich geringer aus als 2017. Damals wurden die Bauaktivitäten...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer...

This paper presents a simple and tractable equilibrium model of repos, where collateralized credit emerges under limited commitment. We show that even if there is no time variation in fundamentals, repo markets can fluctuate endogenously over time. In our theory, repo market fragilities are...