This paper looks at the importance of the terms of trade for the New Zealand economy by examining the impact of changes in the trend and volatility of the terms of trade on economic growth. It is found that the volatility in the terms of trade has had a negative impact on New Zealand's economic...

In ihrem Reflexionspapier zur Vertiefung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion legt die EU-Kommission auch Vorschläge für eine stärkere Integration der Wirtschafts- und Fiskalunion vor. Während einige Vorschläge eindeutig positiv zu werten sind, bleibt die entscheidende Interaktion zwischen...

The fundamental premise upon which the pricing of major FX derivatives rests is the Covered Interest Parity (CIP), and a violation is seen as a reflection of potential capital market inefficiencies. CIP postulates that FX forward prices simply reflect the interest rate differential between the...

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the...

Der europäische Bausektor dürfte 2019 erneut schwächer expandieren. Nach einem Anstieg um 4,2% im Jahr 2017 und einem Zuwachs um 3,1% im vergangenen Jahr gehen die Experten des EUROCONSTRUCT-Netzwerks für das laufende Jahr von einem Plus in der Größenordnung von knapp 2% aus. Dabei dürfte...

Das Statistische Amt der Europäischen Union veröffentlicht jeden Monat den harmonisierten Verbraucherpreis­index für das Euro-Währungsgebiet. Der Beitrag diskutiert die aktuelle Teuerung und zeigt den Einfluss von staatlich administrierten Preisen und indirekter Besteuerung. Zudem wird auf...

We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...

Building upon a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and the persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic...

This profile of Jean-Michel Grandmont is based on several interviews we had with him between September 2016 and April 2017. The interviews took place at our CREST offices, located at that time in Malakoff, just south of Paris. The objective of the profile is twofold. First, we trace the career...

This paper studies the challenge that increasing the inflation target poses to equilibrium determinacy in a medium-sized New Keynesian model without indexation fitted to the Great Moderation era. For moderate targets of the inflation rate, such as 2 or 4 percent, the probability of determinacy...