Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods. We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle. It is shown that methods for forecasting...

We consider forecasting from age-period-cohort models, as well as from the extended chain-ladder model. The parameters of these models are known only to be identified up to linear trends. Forecasts from such models may therefore depend on arbitrary linear trends. A condition for invariant...

Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods.  We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle.  It is shown that methods for forecasting...

It has long been known that maximum likelihood estimation in a Poisson model reproduces the chain-ladder technique. We revisit this model. A new canonical parametrisation is proposed to circumvent the inherent identification problem in the parametrisation. The maximum likelihood estimators for...

The log normal reserving model is considered. The contribution of the paper is to derive explicit expressions for the maximum likelihood estimators. These are expressed in terms of development factors which are geometric averages. The distribution of the estimators is derived. It is shown that...