This paper presents a flexible-price small open economy model with a "peso problem" in productivity states. Agents rationally adjust their beliefs about future productivity growth after the arrival of news. A downward revision of expectations triggers a Sudden Stop, together with large declines...

The links between foreign aid and policies in developing countries have been at the forefront of the policy debate for decades. An emerging consensus touts aid selectivity as the solution to the failures of conditionality. In recent years, many recipients have implemented political reforms...

This paper addresses the problem of data errors in discrete variables. When data errors occur, the observed variable is a misclassified version of the variable of interest, whose distribution is not identified. Inferential problems caused by data errors have been conceptualized through...

Traditional models of bank runs do not allow for herding effects, because in these models withdrawal decisions are assumed to be made simultaneously. I extend the banking model to allow a depositor to choose his withdrawal time. When he withdraws depends on his liquidity type (patient or...

We analyze an economy with banks and markets and uncover implications of the presence of asset markets for the run-prone banking sector. Consumers can split their endowment between a market investment and a deposit contract which admits bank runs. Banks specialize in providing ex ante liquidity...

For a class of aggregative optimal growth models, which allow for a non-convex and non-differentiable production technology, this paper examines whether the set of utilitarian maximal programs coincides with the set of weakly maximal programs. It identifies a condition, called the...

The paper explores a game-theoretic model of petty corruption involving a sequence of entrepreneurs and a track of bureaucrats. Each entrepreneur's project is approved if and only if it is cleared by each bureaucrat. The project value is stochastic; its value is observed only by the entrepreneur,...

We show that the asymptotic mean of the log-likelihood ratio in a misspecified model is a differential geometric quantity that is related to the exponential curvature of Efron (1978), Amari (1982), and the preferred point geometry of Critchley et al. (1993, 1994). The mean is invariant with...

We examine whether the Phelps-Koopmans theorem is valid in models with nonconvex production technologies. We show by example that a nonstationary path that converges to a capital stock above the smallest golden rule may indeed be efficient. This finding has the important implication that...

The paper is a review of results on the asymptotic behavior of Markov processes generated by i.i.d. iterates of monotone maps. Of particular importance is the notion of splitting introduced by Dubins and Freedman (1966). Some extensions to more general frameworks are outlined, and, finally, a...