Careful examination of aggregate data from the U.S. and other OECD countries reveals that production and inventory behavior exhibit paradoxical features: 1) Inventory investment is strongly countercyclical at very high frequencies (e.g., 2-3 quarters per cycle); it is procyclical only at...

Under a minimal set of assumptions, the paper identifies conditions on the transition function of a Markov process leading to the following three scenarios: extinction, conservation, and the existence of a safe standard of conservation. These conditions are used to obtain restrictions on a...

This paper investigates the problem of optimal districting in the context of a simple model of legislative elections. In the model, districting matters because it determines the seat-vote curve, which describes the relationship between seats and votes. The paper first characterizes the optimal...

It is known that sunspots can trigger panic-based bank runs and that the optimal banking contract can tolerate panic-based runs. The existing literature assumes that these sunspots are based on a publicly observed extrinsic randomizing device. In this paper, I extend the analysis of panic-based...

Default is a rare event, even in segments in the midrange of a bank's portfolio. Inference about default rates is essential for risk management and for compliance with the requirements of Basel II. Most commercial loans are in the middle-risk categories and are to unrated companies. Expert...

The paper provides a complete characterization of the turnpike property of optimal paths in the (reduced form) aggregative model of intertemporal allocation. The characterization allows one to identify precisely the bifurcation point between globally stable and cyclical long-run optimal...