Careful examination of aggregate data from the U.S. and other OECD countries reveals that production and inventory behavior exhibit paradoxical features: 1) Inventory investment is strongly countercyclical at very high frequencies (e.g., 2-3 quarters per cycle); it is procyclical only at...

The point of this paper is that if output is durable then optimal behavior of a supplier is characterized by production smoothing. Durability of goods (such as capital) has opposite effects on the supply of the goods. Higher durability on the one hand raises the variability of investment demand...

This paper provides new empirical evidence on and theoretical support for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature and is further confirmed in this paper, standard economic...

Despite the important role played by durable goods production and inventory investment in the business cycle, theoretical models featuring durable goods inventories are rarely available in the literature. This paper provides a simple dynamic optimization model of durable goods inventories and...

We show that dependence of production on foreign inputs (or non-producible natural resources) can significantly increase the likelihood of indeterminacy. Payment of imported foreign factors of production may act as a semi-fixed cost, amplifying production externalities and returns to scale,...

Post war US data show that consumption growth causes output and investment growth. This is puzzling if technology is the driving force of the business cycle. I ask whether general equilibrium models driven by demand shocks can rationalize the observed causal relations. My conclusion is that...

Labor productivity comoves strongly with output, leads output and employment, and is only weakly correlated with employment at the businesscycle frequency. Procyclical productivity is observed in virtually all countries and industries, and it is observed at both the business-cycle frequency and...

Viewing technology shocks as the primary source of business cycles has resulted in many "puzzles" or counter-factual predictions of general equilibrium theory with respect to international movements of output, consumption, investment, employment, and net exports (Backus, Kehoe and Kydland, JPE...

In this paper, we construct a simple model based on heterogeneity in workers' productivity and homogeneity in their working schedules. This simple model can generate unemployment, even if wages adjust instantaneously, firms are perfectly competitive and can perfectly observe workers'...

Price rigidity is the key mechanism for propagating business cycles in traditional Keynesian theory. Yet the New Keynesian literature has failed to show that sticky prices by itself can effectively propagate business cycles in general equilibrium. This situation may be a direct consequence of...