This paper develops and implements an exact finite-sample test of asset pricing models with time-varying risk premia using posterior probabilities. The strength of our approach is that it allows multiple conditional asset pricing specifications, both nested and nonnested, to be tested and...

This article develops an asset allocation framework that incorporates prior beliefs about the extent of stock return predictability explained by asset pricing models. We find that when prior beliefs allow even minor deviations from pricing model implications, the resulting asset allocations...

This paper evaluates hedge fund performance through portfolio strategies that incorporate predictability based on macroeconomic variables. Incorporating predictability substantially improves out-of-sample performance for the entire universe of hedge funds as well as for various investment...

This paper reviews the literature on Bayesian portfolio analysis. Information about events, macro conditions, asset pricing theories, and security-driving forces can serve as useful priors in selecting optimal portfolios. Moreover, parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty are practical...