A multisectoral union-firm model of wage-setting is developed to analyze intersectoral interactions that take place through expectations of outside wage opportunities in the economy as a whole. The technical issues involved in the solution and estimation of models of this type are discussed,...

The authors consider the solution of multivariate linear rational expectations models in the presence of heterogeneous information and social interactions. To overcome the 'infinite regress in expectations' problem that arises in the solution of these models, we assume that agents' expectations...

This paper focuses on whether to use macro or micro equations to predict aggregate variables. The Grunfeld-Griliches prediction criterion is generalized to allow for contemporaneous covariances across the micro equations and for parametric restrictions on the disaggregate equations. An...

This paper discusses alternative methods of testing for aggregation bias and proposes direct tests of the discrepancy of the macroparameters from the average of the corresponding microparameters, and derives tests of aggregation bias in the general case where the parameters of interest may...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a straightforward manner which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Point and probability forecasts obtained using a small...

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...