Showing 21 - 30 of 93,079
This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business cycle fluctuations, and highlights its systemic risk across all sectors of the economy. We develop a canonical New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a tractable role for the equity market in banking,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010687828
Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using the universe of professional survey forecasts for the United States, we document the behavior of the entire term structure of expectations for output growth, inflation, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012703485
In the U.S., over 1873-2014, an increase in bank credit is associated with a lower risk of a financial crisis in the near future. Bank credit expansion predicts lower excess returns and volatility for the aggregate stock market, and this predictive relation varies in the cross-section and is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002941
The paper estimates a model that allows for shifts in the aggressiveness of monetary policy and time variation in the distribution of macroeconomic shocks. These model features induce variations in the cyclical properties of inflation and the riskiness of bonds. The estimation identifies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973281
We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886884
In this paper we provide a thorough characterization of the asset return implied by a simple general equilibrium production economy with convex investment adjustment costs. When households have Epstein-Zin preferences, there exist plausible parameter values such that the model generates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014026125
This paper derives approximate analytical solutions for various financial assets in the production economy with monetary shocks. Both technology and monetary shocks drive the dynamics of various financial assets. Special cases of permanent and transitory shocks are considered.The solutions based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134616
We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Macro risks represent the variables that govern the time-varying variance, skewness and higher-order moments of these two shocks, with "good"...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899126
As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in trading activity and liquidity in the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market, as well as a spike in U.S. CDS premiums. Compared with the periods leading up to the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling episodes, we show that elevated CDS...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355266
In recent weeks and months, a number of market commentators have drawn comparisons between the prevailing economic landscape and previous financial crises, episodes and events. These have ranged from talk of a new ‘Volcker Shock’ to a repeat of the 1987 stockmarket crash, the dot.com burst...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236089