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Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?

Adams, F. Gerard; Gangnes, Byron - Department of Economics, University of Hawaii-Manoa - 2000

The Japanese current account has been in surplus since 1981, ranging from 1% to more than 4% of GDP. In this paper, we review the macroeconomic forces that have driven the surplus and describe likely changes in the first part of the next century. In coming years, structural change in Japan's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005704485

The Bank of Canada's Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM)

Lalonde, Rene; Muir, Dirk - Bank of Canada - 2007

The Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM) is derived from the model created at the International Monetary Fund by Douglas Laxton (IMF) and Paolo Pesenti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and National Bureau of Economic Research). The GEM is a dynamic stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808259

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment

Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo A.; Elekdag, Selim; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008

We develop a five-region version (Canada, a group of oil exporting countries, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005088848

What do current account reversals in OECD countries tell us about the US case?

Haan, Leo de; Schokker, Hubert; Tcherneva, Anastassia - de Nederlandsche Bank - 2006

four decades and draws some inferences for the present US deficit. Estimates of a probit model indicate that the deepness … of the deficit itself, absence of spare production capacity and a beginning real depreciation are factors that increase … reversal are now on, making a near reversal probable. Over the past 40 years half of the current account deficit reversals in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106642

Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment

Elekdag, Selim; Lalonde, René; Laxton, Douglas; Muir, Dirk - Bank of Canada - 2007

We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162484

Consumption-smoothing and the excessiveness of Greece's current account deficits

Makrydakis, Stelios - In: Empirical Economics 24 (1999) 2, pp. 183-209

This paper investigates whether the sequence of current account deficits experienced in Greece over the 1950-1995 period have been excessive. The degree of excessiveness is gauged by comparing the actual current account series to an optimal current account measure derived from an intertemporal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005166639

Channels for Narrowing the US Current Account Deficit and Implications for Other Economies

Brook, Anne-Marie; Sédillot, Franck; Ollivaud, Patrice - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2004

US current account deficit could occur. The shocks considered include dollar depreciation, fiscal consolidation, and an … to materially reduce the US external deficit. In part, this is because second-round effects, including domestic policy … deficit involves risks to growth in the rest of the world, particularly in Japan where the authorities have limited room to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005045912

Tracking the Euro

Koen, Vincent; Boone, Laurence; Serres, Alain de; … - Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et … - 2001

During the first two years of monetary union, the euro's weakness surprised most market participants. Explanations proliferated ranging from fundamentals such as differences in growth prospects to psychological factors such as herd behaviour, but no single story fully accounts for the observed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005045928

Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing

Faruqee, Hamid; Laxton, Douglas; Pesenti, Paolo A.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2005

higher levels) and a gradual depreciation of the dollar, allowing the U.S. external deficit to gradually move to a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005050416

How much depreciation of the US dollar for sustainability of the current accounts?

Ogawa, Eiji; Kudo, Takeshi - Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University - 2004

In this paper, we conduct a simulation analysis to investigate how much depreciation of the US dollar is needed to reduce the current account deficits in the near future. We use some VAR models to estimate relationships between the exchange rate of the US dollar and the current accounts in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005675465