Using a structural model of default, I derive rating characteristics if ratings are meant tolook ‘through the cycle’ as opposed to being based on the borrowers’ current condition.The through-the-cycle method, which is employed by most rating agencies, requires aseparation of permanent and...

We use dynamic panel analysis to examine whether credit rating agencies achieve what they claim to achieve, namely, look into the future when assigning their ratings. We find that Moodey's ratings help predict individual financial ratios over a horizon of up to five years. Ratings also predict a...

This paper investigates some common determinants of default probability changes ofindividual firms using Standard & Poor's ratings database. We analyze and quantify the re-sponses of hazard rates to changes in various economic variables, namely financial markets,business cycle and credit...

We use dynamic panel analysis to examine whether credit rating agencies achieve what they claim to achieve, namely, look into the future when assigning their ratings. We find that Moody's ratings help predict individual financial ratios over a horizon of up to five years. Ratings also predict a...

This paper aims at analysing the mortality patterns of hedge funds over the period January 1994 to May 2008. In particular, we investigate the extent to which a spillover of risk among hedge funds through redemptions and failures of other funds has affected the probability of fund failure. We...

For nearly two years, the two of us have had a running discussion of the costs and benefits of automatic stays in bankruptcy for qualified financial contracts (QFCs) such as derivatives and repurchase agreements, particularly those held by systemically important major dealer banks. Under current...

Government bailouts undermine the core principles of capitalism. They are also expensive, unjust, unpopular, and usually represent dramatic deviations from the rule of law. However, they are also, in some cases, necessary. The “problem of bailouts,” then, is that they are almost always...

We construct a novel dataset to measure banks' complexity and relate it to banks' riskiness. The sample covers stock listed Euro area banks from 2007 to 2014. Bank stability is significantly affected by complexity, whereas the direction of the effect differs across complexity measures. This...

Surveys on the use of agency credit ratings reveal that most investors believe that rating agencies are relatively slow in adjusting their ratings. (...)

The current paper analyzes the impacts of privatization of Sudan air carrier, Sudan Airways. The hypothetical framework in this study is that alternative policies other than privatization are feasible. Sudan airways represents the sovereignty of the country carrying its flag, its objectives is...