Using unpublished data contained in samples from the manuscripts of the 1870 and 1880 censuses of manufactures, we examine the extent and correlates of part-year manufacturing during the late nineteenth century. These data are the earliest comprehensive estimates available and, while the typical...

A positive Lyapunov exponent is one practical definition of chaos. We develop a formal test for chaos in a noisy system based on the consistent standard errors of the nonparametric Lyapunov exponent estimators. When our procedures are applied to international real output series, the hypothesis...

We propose a methodology for constructing operational indices of inflation pressure, the monetary authority's effort to reduce this pressure, and the degree to which inflation pressure is alleviated. We begin with model independent definitions of these concepts. When our definitions are applied...

In sticky price models with endogenous investment, virtually all monetary policy rules that set a nominal interest rate in response solely to future inflation induce real indeterminacy of equilibrium. Applying the Samuelson-Farebrother conditions, we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition...

In this paper, we address two important issues in survival model selection for censored data generated by the Archimedean copula family; method of estimating the parametric copulas and data reuse. We demonstrate that for model selection, estimators of the parametric copulas based on minimizing...

The problem of monetary policy delegation is formulated as a two-stage non-cooperative game between the government and the central bank. The solution to this policy game determines the optimal combination of central bank conservatism and independence. The results obtained show that the optimal...

This paper explores the political economy of anti-discrimination legislation during the ascendancy of the Civil Rights Movement. It traces the diffusion of state-level fair employment legislation and evaluates the relative importance of various demographic, political and economic factors in...

I study an example of a competitive environment in which trade occurs in a sequential manner. In this example, a country with a stable demand may suffer from trade with a country with unstable demand, there may be too much trade, a country may import and export the same good in the same period...

We propose a sieve maximum likelihood (ML) estimation procedure for a broad class of semiparametric multivariate distribution models. A joint distribution in this class is characterized by a parametric copula function evaluated at nonparametric marginal distributions. This class of models has...

The confluence of the Great Migration and the Civil Rights Movement propelled the drive for "fair-housing" legislation which attempted to curb overt discrimination in housing markets. This drive culminated in the passage of the federal Civil Rights Act of 1968. By that time, 57 percent of the...