Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in...

We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to...

To assess the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decisions about the Official Bank Rate under forecast uncertainty, I estimate simple forecast-based interest rate rules augmented by the forecast standard deviations recovered directly from the Inflation Report fan charts. I find that...

Most empirical studies found that monetary policy has a significant effect on house prices while stock markets remain unaffected by interest rate shocks. In this paper we conduct a more detailed analysis by studying various sub-segments of the real estate market. Em-ploying a new dataset for...

The Eurosystem's main refinancing operations (MRO) are key for the interbank money market and the monetary transmission process in the euro area. This paper investigates how money market rates respond to the information revealed by various aspects of an MRO auction outcome. Our results confirm...

The term structure of interest rates does not adhere to the expectations hypothesis, possibly due to a risk premium. We consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation,...

We study central bank interventions in times of severe distress (mid-2010), using a unique bond-level dataset of ECB purchases of Greek sovereign debt. ECB bond buying had a large impact on the price of short and medium maturity bonds, resulting in a remarkable twist of the Greek yield curve....

Based on detailed loan portfolio data of a top-20 universal bank in Germany, we investigate the effect of unconventional monetary policy on corporate loan pricing. We can decompose corporate lending rates, thereby shedding light on intra-bank transmission of monetary policy. We identify policy...

In this paper we analyze the effects of changes in peoples' beliefs about the timing of the exit from Quantitative Easing ("tapering") on asset prices. To quantify beliefs of market participants, we use data from Twitter, the social media application, covering the entire Twitter volume on...