This is a survey of recent developments in the field of cointegration, which links long run components of a pair or of a group of series. It can then be used to discuss some types of equilibrium and to introduce them into time-series models in a fairly uncontroversial way. The idea was...

A volatility model must be able to forecast volatility; this is the central requirement in almost all financial applications. In this paper we outline some stylized facts about volatility that should be incorporated in a model: pronounced persistence and mean-reversion, asymmetry such that the...

This paper investigates the degree of short run and long run co-movement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoraI trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral output from first principles. Cointegration and...

A semiparametric model for observational data combines a parametric form for some component of the data generating process (usually the behavioral relation between the dependent and explanatory variables) with weak nonparametric restrictions on the remainder of the model (usually the...

A brief account is given of the methodology and theory for the bootstrap. Methodology is developed in the context of the "equation" approach, which allows attention to be focussed on specific criteria for excellence, such as coverage error of a confidence interval or expected value of a...

Asymptotic distribution theory is the primary method used to examine the properties of econometric estimators and tests. We present conditions for obtaining cosistency and asymptotic normality of a very general class of estimators (extremum estimators). Consistent asymptotic variance estimators...

This chapter reviews inference about large autoregressive or moving average roots in univariate time series, and structural change in multivariate time series regression. The "problem" of unit roots is cast more broadly as determining the order of integration of a series; estimation, inference,...