We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking...

This paper examines some of the key issues in the conduct of Philippine monetary policy since 1984, including the various shocks to the economy and the monetary authorities’ choice of intermediate policy targets and instruments used to achieve those targets. Against this background, estimates...

This paper analyzes the implications of devaluation and a variety of structural disturbances in a dual exchange rate economy. A key feature of the model developed is its explicit recognition of both private (fraudulent) and officially-sanctioned cross transactions between the two exchange...

This paper analyzes the financial policies pursued in the major industrial countries under the flexible exchange rate regime, and links misalignments in policies and their mixes to exchange rate variations among the major currencies. A number of indicators note that misalignments in fiscal...

The paper reviews the statistical behavior of major currency exchange rates during 1975-86. A close inspection indicates small deviations of recent exchange rate behavior from random walks and some systematic movements in monthly data, possibly corresponding to the relatively infrequent arrivals...

This paper explores how interest rates on domestic financial assets in Mexico are linked to expectations of exchange rate changes and to perceptions about the default risks contained in Mexico’s external debt. It is shown that the interest rate differentials between peso- and U.S....

This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. We consider temporary current, anticipated future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade. The results suggest that the...

This paper examines credibility and reputational factors in explaining the December 1994 crisis of the Mexican peso. After reviewing events leading to the crisis, a model emphasizing the inflation-competitiveness trade-off is presented to explain the formation of devaluation expectations....

This paper examines the relationship between monetary and exchange rate policies by considering the factors that have led the authorities in developed and developing countries in Asia to alter their use of monetary policy instruments and exchange rate arrangements since the mid-1970s. There is...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...