information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …

relationship between the GDP index and the GDP deflator. Then, the errors of these forecasts are computed. On the other hand, the … GDP deflator prediction errors. The data series are historical errors of forecasts based on the Dobrescu macromodel. The … forecasts errors of the GDP index based on the Dobrescu macromodel historical errors for 2009-2011 are lower than the errors …

for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011 … accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One …

) models generated more accurate forecasts than ARMA models or models with lags. For the infl ation rate the model with lag …, which is consistent with Granger causality, determined the most accurate forecasts. The predictions based on all these …

-type models provide poor out-of-sample forecasts of volatility. This is primarily based on the use of traditional forecast … evaluation criteria concerning the accuracy and the unbiasedness of forecasts. In this paper we provide an assessment of … suitable for the evaluation of volatility forecasts. …

more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from …