The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the...

We describe conditions for the existence of a stationary Markovian equilibrium when total production or total endowment is a random variable. Apart from regularity assumptions, there are two crucial conditions: (i) low information -- agents are ignorant of both total endowment and their own...

We study infinitely repeated games with observable actions, where players have present-biased (so-called beta-delta) preferences. We give a two-step procedure to characterize Strotz-Pollak equilibrium payoffs: compute the continuation payoff set using recursive techniques, and then use this set...

Schumpeter regarded "The Nature of Capital and Income" as one of the three of Fisher's contributions to general theory generally recognized, at the time Schumpeter was writing, as "of first-class importance and originality." The other two were Fisher's "Mathematical Investigations" (1982) and...

We consider an auction environment with interdependent values. Each bidder can learn her payoff type through costly information acquisition. We contrast the socially optimal decision to acquire information with the equilibrium solution in which each agent has to privately bear the cost of...

This paper considers a first-order autoregressive model with conditionally heteroskedastic innovations. The asymptotic distributions of least squares (LS), infeasible generalized least squares (GLS), and feasible GLS estimators and t statistics are determined. The GLS procedures allow for...

This paper proposes a novel positive nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function without reliance on logarithmic or other transformations. The estimator is based on an empirical likelihood modification of conventional local level nonparametric regression applied to squared mean...

We consider the optimal design of flexible use in a digital-rights-management policy. The basic model considers a single distributor of digital goods and a continuum of consumers. Each consumer can acquire the digital good either as a licensed product or an unlicensed copy. The availability of...

This paper assumes that groups of consumers in network markets can coordinate their choices when it is in their best interest to do so, and when coordination does not require communication. It is shown that multiple asymmetric networks can coexist in equilibrium if consumers have heterogeneous...

Radical financial innovation is the development of new institutions and methods that permit risk management to be extended far beyond its former realm, covering important new classes of risks. This paper compares past such innovation with potential future innovation, looking at the process that...