A particular ceiling on atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be maintained through a variety of emission pathways. Over the past decade, there has been considerable debate over the characteristics of a least-cost pathway. Some have suggested that a gradual departure from the emissions baseline...

There is a broad consensus that the costs of abatement of global climate change can be reduced efficiently through the assignment of quota rights, and through international trade in these rights. But there is no consensus on whether the initial assignment of emission permits can affect the...

When conducting a multi-gas analysis, there are distinct advantages in moving from concentrations to radiative forcing. With the former, it is customary to use Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for making tradeoffs among greenhouse gases. A number of studies have shown the arbitrariness of this...

Energy forecasting is a hazardous occupation. Virtually any projection is doomed to be incorrect. Opinions can swing from one extreme to another during a six-month period. Our paper is not intended to provide still another projection, but rather to try to explain why different individuals and...

This paper analyzes the distribution of long-term oil price projections submitted by participants in the January 1986 International Energy Workshop (IEW) poll. Wide differences of opinion are observed between individual respondents.

This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we...

In this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both...