A major inconvenience of the traditional approach in portfolio choice, based upon historical information, is its inability to anticipate sudden changes of price tendencies. Introducing information about future behavior of the assets fundamentals may help to make more appropriate choices. However...

Models for assessing the probability of default play an important role in the risk management systems of commercial banks, as they allow assessing the creditworthiness of various counterparties and transactions. Many Russian banks are trying to switch to an advanced approach based on internal...

The research presented in this thesis addresses different aspects of dynamic portfolio construction and portfolio risk measurement. It brings the research on dynamic portfolio optimization, replicating portfolio construction, dynamic portfolio risk measurement and volatility forecast together....

Using a limiting approach to portfolio credit risk, we obtain analyticexpressions for the tail behavior of the distribution of credit losses. We showthat in many cases of practical interest the distribution of these losses haspolynomial ('fat') rather than exponential ('thin') tails. Our...