In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is...

In the short term, the primary effects of a fiscal adjustment most frequently cause a downturn in economic output, although it may also produce stimulating, secondary effects, as well. In relation to this, with the help of an estimated model based on Hungarian data, we analysed how the...

What are the consequences of wage negotiations on monetary policy in acountry that is in transition to lower inflation? We show that wageindexation to expected inflation, increased central bank credibility and ahigher frequency of wage adjustments can increase the effect of monetarypolicy and...

It has to be kept in mind that there is no general construction principle for a perfect composite leading indicator. It is only possible to optimise the construction of such an indicator with respect to specified demands. In the case of the EU Economic Sentiment Indicator the question is if top...

In this paper we estimate a continuous-time macroeconometric model of the Hungarian economy and compare it with the Czech model described in Stavrev (1998). On the basis of the estimated models we provide simulations and compare the results between the two countries for i) anti-inflationary...

In this paper we assess the stability of open economy backward looking Phillips curves estimated across two different exchange rate regimes. The time series we deal with come from the simulation of a New-Keynesian hybrid model suited for performing monetary policy analysis. The statistical...

We assess the stability of open economy backward-looking Phillips curves estimated over two different exchange rate regimes. We calibrate a new-Keynesian monetary policy model and employ it for producing artificial data. A monetary policy break replicating the move from a Target-Zone regime to a...

Real Business Cycle (RBC) and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) methods have become essential components of the macroeconomist’s toolkit. This literature review stresses recently developed (often Bayesian) techniques for computation and inference, providing a supplement to the...

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in...