Empirical estimates of monetary policy rules suggest that the behavior of U.S. monetary policymakers changed during the past few decades. However, at the same time, statistical analyses of lagged representations of the economy, such as VARs, often have not rejected the null of structural...

Using quarterly data for the period 1985:1-2011:1, this paper uses a stylised, open economy, structural VAR model to identify the types of shocks responsible for macroeconomic fluctuations in the UK economy. The stylised model implies a set of short-run restrictions that allow for the...

We use the recently proposed linear opinion pool methodology of Garratt et al. (2014) to construct real-time ensemble nowcast densities of the output gap for Switzerland over an out-of-sample period from 2003:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The model space consists of a large number of bivariate VAR...

We apply textual analysis tools to measure the degree of optimism versus pessimism of the text that describes Federal Reserve Board forecasts published in the Greenbook. The resulting measure of Greenbook text sentiment, “Tonality,� is found to be strongly correlated, in the...

A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy isused to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy ruleswhen faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the modelshows that a monetary policy...

We introduce a prototype agent-based model of the macroeconomy, with budgetary constraints at its core. The model is related to a class of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), which has been thoroughly investigated in computer science. The CSP paradigm allows us to propose an alternative...

We discuss the impact of a COVID-like shock on a simple toy economy, described by the Mark-0 Agent-Based Model that we developed and discussed in a series of previous papers. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration),...

We apply textual analysis tools to the narratives that accompany Federal Reserve Board economic forecasts to measure the degree of optimism versus pessimism expressed in those narratives. Text sentiment is strongly correlated with the accompanying economic point forecasts, positively for GDP...

Russian Abstract: Взаимная торговля стран ЕАЭС является одним из ключевых индикаторов интеграционных процессов в регионе, при этом интенсификация и диверсификация...

Russian Abstract: В специальном докладе проведено исследование эффектов переноса валютных курсов на инфляцию в странах – участницах Евразийского банка развития....