In the wake of deregulation of prices of some petroleum products, we estimate the pass-through impact of international oil prices on the Indian economy. In contrast to global trends, we find evidence of higher pass-through to domestic inflation and industrial output, particularly since 2002 when...

The aim of this article is to analyze how financial heterogeneity can accentuate the cyclical divergences inside a monetary union that faces technological, monetary, budgetary and financial shocks. To this purpose, this study relies on a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model,...

This chapter aims to provide a hands-on approach to New Keynesian models and their uses for macroeconomic policy analysis. It starts by reviewing the origins of the New Keynesian approach, the key model ingredients and representative models. Building blocks of current-generation dynamic...

This paper describes a small macro-model for the euro area. It has been built using Eurostat quarterly data and is aimed at improving the current tools used for forecasting and analysing the economy of the area. Some key data, such as capital stock or households disposable income, have been...

Modern policy analysis makes extensive use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These models differ significantly from earlier generations of large-scale econometric models. I review what I see as major progress in the ability of economists to conduct model-based policy...

A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy...

The Central Bank of Uruguay started to an interest rate instrument for monetary policy in September 2009. This paper develops a Small Structural Model for the Uruguayan economy which contributes to the understanding of the channels through which monetary policy operates under a flexible...

In this paper we show that the macroeconomic effects of a transient interestrate peg can be significantly dampened when the peg is perceived to be imperfectly credible by the private sector. By doing so, we provide a solution to what has become known as the "forward guidance puzzle". This is the...

A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is tailored to analyze the effects of changes in the oil price and alternative fiscal policies. Model simulations indicate that the Russian economy is vulnerable to large fluctuations in the oil price, but we also find evidence of significant...

The paper is concerned with the traditional "assignment" to be found in many textbooks that holds central bankers responsible for inflation – and inflation only – while government politicians are recommended to care for the short-term stabilisation of the economy (or not to...