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Bayoumi, Tamim; Swiston, Andrew - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the … these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and financial market channels. For Canada, a one percent shock to U.S. real … GDP shifts Canadian real GDP by some Â¾ of a percentage point in the same direction- with financial spillovers more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264075

Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa; Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?

Cashin, Paul; Pattillo, Catherine A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826235

Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries; A "Fan-Chart" Approach

Celasun, Oya; Debrun, Xavier; Ostry, Jonathan David - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826339

Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity; An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle

Valente, Giorgio; Leon, H. L.; Sarno, Lucio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604790

On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications

Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263898

Exploration of the Brazilian Term Structure in a Hidden Markov Framework

Munclinger, Richard - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model's characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839349

Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System

Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693

Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model

Chen, Huigang; Mirestean, Alin; Tsangarides, Charalambos G. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009327870

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Goodhart, C. A. E.; Basurto, Miguel A. Segoviano; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264113

Trade Openness and Volatility

Levchenko, Andrei A.; Giovanni, Julian di - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790347

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