We argue that secular change in both the production and composition of investment goods has weakened private investment's role in the transmission of monetary policy to labor earnings and consumption. We show analytically that fluctuations in the production of investment goods amplify the...

I incorporate the productivity risks into an investment-based q-factor asset pricing model. The productivity risks factors largely summarize the cross-sectional portfolio return, where the time-varying volatility plays an important role. A parsimonious q-factor model driven by productivity risks...

This paper presents DSGE Nash, a toolkit to solve for pure strategy Nash equilibria of global games in macro models. Although primarily designed to solve for Nash equilibria in DSGE models, the toolkit encompasses a broad range of options including solutions up to the third order, multiple...

Using a comprehensive data set of earthquakes in China, we show that investors perceive increased credit risk in quasi-municipal bonds exposed to devastating earthquakes, leading to a significant positive risk premium. Our study identifies that this bias is temporary and decreases as investors...

The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recov¬ery...

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998-2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related...

This study introduces and evaluates a bottom-up methodology for projecting the Gross Value-Added of the agricultural sector (agricultural GDP). This approach integrates econometric methods with early crop forecasts, which are released one year ahead of annual production figures by specialized...

We compile a novel high-frequency, detailed geographic dataset on mass layoffs from U.S. state labor departments. Using recent advances in difference-in-difference estimation with staggered treatment, we find that locally-mandated stay-at-home orders issued March 16–22, 2020 triggered mass...

We show that occupation mobility creates the illusion of cyclical hiring wages. Using administrative data, we find that wages of new hires who remain in the same occupation are no more cyclical than those of existing workers, whereas wages of occupation switchers are highly cyclical. We uncover...

In this paper we consider the predictors of the business cycle in Great Britain, where the claimant count and unemployment rate are found to be key indicators associated with turning points. Next, we consider at a micro-economic level, using disaggregated local authority level data, a number of...