This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mexico’s real GDP remained subdued in the first half of 2003, with growth of 1.4 percent in the four quarters ending in the second quarter. While recent indicators of activity have been mixed, most observers still expect the economy to...

Recent improvements in statistical methodologies and data availability are facilitating detailed, high-frequency, timely macroeconomic balance sheet analysis. This paper provides practical instruction on how to design the framework to analyze vulnerabilities in a country as well as an overview...

This paper presents a simple model of optimal reserves that can be easily calibrated to compute optimal reserves as well as the implied probability of a sudden stop for given reserves. The model builds upon the global games framework of Morris and Shin to establish a unique relationship between...

Iceland’s gross external debt rose above 600 percent of GDP, while households and corporations accumulated heavy debt burdens with large exposures to foreign exchange and inflation risk. The global banking crisis exposed Iceland’s vulnerabilities, triggering a balance-of-payments...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic underlies debt sustainability analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that if the pace of economic reforms falters, the debt burden—high even in the baseline case—could become...

Australia's economy has continued to perform remarkably well, despite encountering major adverse shocks. Fiscal policy, with an objective of maintaining a balanced budget, will help support the economy. Maintaining a sound and stable macroeconomic environment is essential. Reforms of the...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s economic performance has strengthened in the last several years, with real GDP growing by 5–5½ percent in 2005–07, inflation declining to mid-single digits until recently, and employment growing steadily....