Colombia’s economy has performed well in recent years. This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in 2006–07 exceeded the regional average by a substantial margin. The authorities have acted swiftly to bolster confidence and ensure that the private sector...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that boom in private consumption in Iceland was facilitated by easing household credit conditions, tax cuts, rapidly rising housing and equity wealth, and an appreciating real exchange rate. As a result, the output gap peaked at over 5 percent in...

The Latvian economy has made remarkable strides, combining macroeconomic stability with rapid income convergence. An upfront policy tightening is needed to contain near-term overheating and secure a soft landing. Fiscal restraint is needed to counter the sizable demand stimulus already in play....

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Czech Republic’s GDP expanded by 3.1 percent in 2003 and the first quarter of 2004, mainly supported by household consumption. Investment was also strong in 2003—driven by spending on public infrastructure—and swelled in...

This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help...

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The...

This paper discusses the request from the Bosnia and Herzegovina authorities for a Stand-By Arrangement. The global financial and economic crisis hit Bosnia and Herzegovina when the overheating was already raising doubts about the sustainability of the economic expansion. The authorities’...

Belarus’ economic growth has been impressive in the last few years. Belarus’ economic program is designed to facilitate adjustment to external shocks and reduce vulnerabilities. It includes a number of structural reforms on issues that are critical to the mitigation of...