The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. This paper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majority of whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis is the most...

We consider the problem of forecasting time series with long memory when the memory parameter is subject to a structural break. By means of a large-scale Monte Carlo study we show that ignoring such a change in persistence leads to substantially reduced forecasting precision. The strength of...

In ESTAR models it is usually difficult to determine parameter estimates, as it can be observed in the literature. We show that the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is a consequence of the so-called identification problem, the problem of properly distinguishing the transition...

In this paper we analyze the distribution of fertility rates across the world using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: a high-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the...

The paper investigates the influence of three different wage-setting regimes (industry-wide collective contracts, firm-level contracts, and individual contracts) on the level and the dispersion of wages. The analysis uses the Salary and Wage Structure Survey for Lower Saxony, Germany. The...

We study the empirical behaviour of semi-parametric log-periodogram estimation for long memory models when the true process exhibits a change in persistence. Simulation results confirm theoretical arguments which suggest that evidence for long memory is likely to be found. A recently proposed...

This paper provides survey evidence on the influence of training on behavioral finance on professional fund managers' perception and investment behavior. In particular, it examines whether "trained" fund managers differ from the "untrained" ones in their perception of markets and themselves as...

This paper introduces wealth-dependent time preference into a simple model of endogenous growth. The model generates adjustment dynamics in line with the historical facts on savings and economic growth in Europe from the High Middle Ages to today. Along a virtuous cycle of development more...

This paper gives an overview of different methodologies related to value chain analysis in the context of environment and trade research. Four major fields of methodologies are identified: Accounting of input-output flows, general computable equilibrium models, econometrics, and global commodity...

We show that information about the counterparty of a trade affects the future trading decisions of individual traders. The effect is such that traders tend to reverse their order flow in line with the better-informed counterparties. Informed traders primarily incorporate their own private as...