In this paper we introduce the STAR-STGARCH model that can characterizenonlinear behaviour both in the conditional mean and the conditionalvariance. A modelling cycle for this family of models, consisting ofspecification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed.Misspecification tests...

This paper suggests a unified framework for testing the adequacy of anestimated GARCH model. Nothing more complicated than standard asymptotictheory is required. Parametric tests of no ARCH in standardized errors,symmetry, and parameter constancy are suggested. Estimating the alternativewhen the...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...