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We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257521
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'Journal of Banking and Finance' (2013). Vol. 37, issue 12, pages 5073-5087.<P> This paper conducts a horse-race of different liquidity proxies using dynamic asset allocation strategies to evaluate the short-horizon predictive ability of...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257598
explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257659
The paper presents the Version 2000 of the Romanian macromodel (elaborated by the author). For the period 2003-2010, two scenarios have been elaborated. The first, named “Desirable” incorporates the main lines of the Strategy for integration of Romania into European Union. The second...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258433
В статье предпринята попытка разработки нового подхода к системе формирования банковского резерва на возможные потери по кредитам. Данная методология...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011222351
Рассмотрены результаты исследований влияния различных способов обработки почвы на засоренность посевов и их влияние на продуктивность сельскохозяйственных...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011222440
Burfi is an extremely popular sweetmeat, which is prepared by desiccating the standardized water buffalo milk. Soft computing feedforward single layer models were developed for predicting the shelf life of burfi stored at 30ºC. The data of the product relating to moisture, titratable acidity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011222443
An approach to determine the demand in carrying passengers on the intercity bus route (on the example of intercity route of "Debaltsevo Sverdlovsk") is offered in the article. The approach consists of five stages: substantiation of the necessity of intercity bus route opening; determination of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011222658
В статье приводится анализ обобщающих результатов работы аграрного сектора экономики Ставропольского края. Систематизируются факторы, оказывающие негативное...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011222781
In this paper we discuss how the forecasting performance of Bayesian VARs is affected by a number of specification … lag length and of both; compare alternative approaches to h-step ahead forecasting (direct, iterated and pseudo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854551