We propose a class of prior distributions that discipline the long-run predictions of vector autoregressions (VARs). These priors can be naturally elicited using economic theory, which provides guidance on the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series in the long run. Our priors for the long...

Macroeconomic strategies and policies have differed significantly among Asian countries over the last fifty years, and yet some common issues recur despite their immense diversity in inherited historical initial conditions, differences in political systems, geo-political situations, location and...

A local level model has a deterministic level when the signal-to-noise ratio q is zero. In this paper we investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimator of q, paying particular attention to the case where its true value is zero. These properties are shown to be crucially dependent...

This paper uses Italian panel data to analyse transition probabilities at the bottom of the earnings distribution during the 1990s. The analytical framework is characterised by the ability to account for the endogeneity of initial conditions, educational attainment and earnings attrition,...

The issues of persistence in the observed labour market status of men are investigated using the British Household Panel Survey for the period 1991-97. The paper extends previous work in many directions. In particular, problems of endogenous initial conditions, and unobserved heterogeneity, are...

We use eight waves from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001) to analyze the intertemporal labor supply behavior of married women in six European countries (Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy, Germany and United Kingdom) using dynamic binary choice models with different initial...

Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech...

This paper analyzes transitions into and out-of Social Assistance in Canada. We estimate a dynamic Probit model, controlling for endogenous initial conditions and unobserved heterogeneity, using longitudinal data extracted from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for the years...

This paper presents a convenient shortcut method for implementing the Heckman estimator of the dynamic random effects probit model using standard software. It then compares the three estimators proposed by Heckman, Orme and Wooldridge based on three alternative approximations, first in an...

This paper investigates the role of self-productivity and home resources in ability formation from infancy to adolescence. In addition, we study the complementarities between basic cognitive, motor and noncognitive abilities and social as well as academic achievement. Our data are taken from the...