Satiation of need is generally ignored by growth theory. I study a model where consumers may be satiated in any given good but new goods may be introduced. A social planner will never elect a trajectory with long-run satiation. Instead, he will introduce enough new goods to avoid such a...

Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries - but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with...

We develop an aggregate demand analysis of a small open economy based on all agents' dynamic optimization. Murota and Ono (2015) present a simple Keynesian cross analysis with dynamic optimization. This paper extends it to a small-country setting with two factors and two commodities, of which...

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini "disasters." By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show...

This paper proposes an integrated framework to analyze jointly two key issues: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face...

In transitional stage saving rate play an important role in output growth rate as proposed by Krugman. Accumulationists are also right as claiming that learning-by-doing play an important role in TFP growth in NIEs. However, using a CES production technology we can show that the growth model...

We examine a trivariate time series model that is subject to a regime switch, where the shifts are governed by an unobserved, two-state variable that follows a Markov process. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian framework developed by Albert and Chib (1993), where the unobserved states are...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

When governments levy taxes on labor income on the basis of a balanced budget rule, two steady states in an economy exist, which can cause two movement patterns, namely, indeterminacy paths and a saddle path. Many economists deal with this issue based on indivisiblelabor. On an general...

The welfare cost of random consumption fluctuations is known from De Santis (2007) to be increasing in the level of uninsured idiosyncratic consumption risk. It is known from Barillas, Hansen, and Sargent (2009) to increase if agents care about robustness to model misspecification. We calculate...