The objective of this paper is to test empirical validity of Fear of Floating hypothesis for Turkey after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. We start applying methodologies developed by Calvo and Reinhart (2002) and Ball and Reyes (2004, 2008) to check the probabilities of changes in exchange...

Measures of core inflation convey critical information about an economy. They have a direct effect on the policy-making process, particularly in inflation-targeting countries, and are utilized in forecasting and modelling exercises. In South a Africa the prices indices on which inflation is...

This paper offers and tests a unique explanation for the exchange rate determination puzzle. It is not that exchange rates are unrelated to fundamentals, but rather when fundamentals undergo persistent changes it becomes important to measure their effect in terms of how they change relative to...

This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’ to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods for measuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect...

This research investigates the interactions of U.S. interest rate, the different types of bank loans at all U.S. commercial banks, production activities and the foreign exchange rate between U.S. and China. This paper uses monthly data from 1981 to 2012 to show that some U.S. bank-loan-related...

This paper provides evidence that currency spot prices are autocorrelated, which indicates that technical analysis in foreign exchange trading can and should take a leading role for analyzing expected exchange rate movements. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used to test the Random Walk...

The present study is an attempt to evaluate the predictability of the foreign exchange volatility in thirteen countries. The data covers the period of 2005-2009. To effectively forecast the volatility in the exchange rates, a GARCH model is used. The study compares the results between crisis...

The purpose of this paper is to compare four major exchange rate models for the Costa Rica Colon. We examine exchange rate data for the Costa Rica/U.S. dollar relationship from 1981-2007 and find that monetary models have a higher explanatory ability whereas the Mundell-Fleming model performs...

This study investigates the effects of exchange rate volatility on the top ten categories of exports by the United States to South Africa over a 20-year period from January 1990 to December 2009. The paper uses several measures of volatility to generate a measure of exchange rate volatility,...

In this paper we analyze the effects of the real exchange rate volatility on South Africa’s trade flows with the European Union over the period 1980 to 2009. Our study uses quarterly trade flows on South Africa’s exports and imports and utilizes the bounds testing approach to...