The contingency table literature on tests for dependence among discrete multi-category variables is extensive. Existing tests assume, however, that draws are independent, and there are no tests that account for serial dependencies - a problem that is particularly important in economics and...

We first analyse the general problem of admissible conditioning and next consider the evaluation of the loss of information when a non-admissible conditioning is used as an approximaton of the exact posterior distribution. Considering the case of Fisher test, we evaluate from a Bayesian point...

I. J. Good (1916 – 2009) was a prolific scientist who contributed to many fields, mostly from a Bayesian standpoint. This column explains his idea of quasi- Bayes (a.k.a. pseudo-Bayes) estimation or smoothing of categorical frequencies in a contingency table, which is especially useful as a...

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....