We study a simple exogeneity test in count data models with possibly endogenous multinomial treatment. The test is based on Two Stage Residual Inclusion (2SRI). Results from a broad Monte Carlo study provide novel evidence on important features of this approach in nonlinear settings. We find...

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized autoregressive score modeling...