We study the real-time predictive content of crude oil prices for US real GDP growth through a pseudo out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise. Comparing our benchmark model ?withoutoil? against alternatives ?with oil,? we strongly reject the null hypothesis of no OOS population-level...

We apply a new approach to test the long-run purchasing power parity theory of real exchange rate movements for the UK. The question of whether real exchange rates have a unit root or are mean reverting is set in the more general framework of fractionally differenced time-series models. Our...