We study the processes for the conditional mean and variance given a specification of the process for the observed time series. We derive general results for the conditional mean of univariate and vector linear processes, and then apply it to various models of interest.

This paper develops a structural empirical model of contraception and participation choice under imperfect control of fertility, learning and unobserved heterogeneity to identify, estimate and give a behavioral content to the effect of the first born child on female labor supply. Family planning...

We derive computationally simple and intuitive score tests of neglected serial correlation in unobserved component univariate models using frequency domain techniques. In some common situations in which the information matrix is singular under the null we derive extremum tests that are...

Much of the growing literature on tactical and strategic asset allocation uses vector autoregressive models (VAR) for returns and predictors. Since the portfolio advice they generate may be misleading if those models are not an accurate description of reality, we evaluate the implied joint...

This paper analyzes the effects on ex ante risk-shifting incentives and ex post fiscal costs of three policies that are frequently used in dealing with banking crises, namely, forbearance from prudential regulations, extension of blanket deposit guarantees, and provision of unrestricted...

Firms that are more highly levered are forced to raise capital more often, a process that leads to the generation of information. Of course transparency can improve the allocation of capital. However, when the information about the firm affects the terms under which the firm transacts with its...

In this paper I present an empirical analysis of the dynamics of individual earnings using Spanish quarterly earnings. I propose a new econometric methodology to control for the seasonality in my dataset. Moreover, I apply this methodology to the study of earnings mobility in Spain, using...

This paper presents a dynamic model of banking supervision to analyze the impact of each of Basell II three pillars on banks’ risk taking. We extend previous literature providing an analysis of ratings-based supervisory policies. In Pillar 2 (supervisory review) the supervisor audits more...

Theory provides many explanations about the influence of electoral rules on politicians’ equilibrium behavior. With a few exceptions, all models agree that majoritarian elections are associated with more targeted redistribution and lower politicians’ rents than proportional representation....

RAND commitments—i.e., promises to license on reasonable and non-discriminatory terms— play a key role in standard setting processes. However, the usefulness of those commitments has recently been questioned. The problem allegedly lies in the absence of a generally agreed test to determine...