There is now considerable evidence that business cycle variation in output and employment in the U.S. differs in expansions and contractions. We present nonparametric evidence that asymmetries are strongest in durable goods manufacturing. In a Markov switching framework, we find two leading...

Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility "smile." My objective in this paper is to identify implied probability distributions that might explain this...

Financial markets embed expectations of central bank policy into asset prices. This paper compares two approaches that extract a probability density of market beliefs. The first is a simulated moments estimator for option volatilities described in Mizrach (2002); the second is a new approach...

This entry for the New Palgrave covers developments in nonlinear time series analysis over the last 25 years.

This paper examines a variety of methods for extracting implied probability distributions from option prices and the underlying. The paper first explores non-parametric procedures for reconstructing densities directly from options market data. I then consider local volatility functions, both...

The Enron Corporation went from a $65 billion dollar market capitalization to bankruptcy in just 16 months. Using statistical techniques for extracting the implied probability distributions built into option prices, I examine the market's expectation of Enron's risk of collapse. I find that the...

This article is a video presentation of an interview with Buz Brock at the 12th SNDE conference in Atlanta Georgia on March 12, 2004. The interview includes 15 questions on topics ranging from nonlinear dynamics, ecological modeling, and heterogenous agents.

We estimate the intensity of choice parameter in heterogenous agent models in both a static and dynamic setting. Mean-variance optimizing agents choose among mutual funds of similar styles but varying performance. Actively managed funds have a lower Sharpe ratio than passive index funds, yet...

This paper investigates the market microstructure of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. The two major Chinese stock markets are pure order-driven trading mechanisms without market makers, and we analyze empirically both limit order books. We begin our empirical modeling using the vector...

We consider a model of an internet chat room with free entry but secure identity. Traders exchange messages in real time of both a fundamental and non-fundamental nature. We explore conditions under which traders post truthful information and make trading decisions. We also establish a symmetric...